Conversion rate
25.4%Haaland
20.9%Mbappé
179/704 vs 255/1,218 shots, league only
Haaland vs Mbappé shot conversion
Every shot is a small bet, and conversion rate is the payout record. In domestic league football, Haaland turns 25.4% of his shots into goals and Mbappé 20.9%: one goal every 3.9 shots against one every 4.8, as of 2026-10-01. This page breaks the rate down with and without penalties, by chance quality and season by season, and explains why the gap says more about shot selection than about finishing skill.
Shots per goal
3.9Haaland
4.8Mbappé
Typical top-flight forward: 6 to 8
Non-penalty conversion
22.3%Haaland
18.5%Mbappé
Spot-kicks removed from both sides
Shots per 90
3.7Haaland
4.5Mbappé
Volume: who shoots more often
xG per shot
0.243Haaland
0.189Mbappé
Average quality of the attempt taken
Goals minus xG
+7.6Haaland
+24.3Mbappé
Scoring above what the chances were worth
Shot conversion compared
| Statistic | Haaland | Mbappé |
|---|---|---|
| League career (Understat, shots estimated from shots per 90 × minutes) | ||
| Shots | 704 | 1,218 |
| Goals | 179 | 255 (better) |
| Conversion rate | 25.4% (better) | 20.9% |
| Shots per goal | 3.9 (better) | 4.8 |
| Non-penalty conversion | 22.3% (better) | 18.5% |
| Shots per 90 minutes | 3.7 | 4.5 |
| xG per shotaverage chance quality | 0.243 (better) | 0.189 |
| Goals minus xGfinishing above the model | +7.6 | +24.3 (better) |
| Conversion by chance quality | ||
| Big chances (xG ≥ 0.30) | 48.8% (better) | 46.3% |
| Penalties | 84.8% (better) | 81.8% |
| Range | ||
| Best season2019/20 vs 2016/17 (min. 900 minutes) | 39.4% (better) | 28.3% |
| Worst season2024/25 vs 2017/18 | 20.2% | 17.1% (better) |
Understat covers Haaland from 2019/20 (Bundesliga, Premier League) and Mbappé from 2015/16 (Ligue 1, La Liga); Norwegian and Austrian seasons, cups, Europe and internationals are excluded. Shot totals are reconstructed from shots per 90 and minutes, so they can be out by a handful. Big-chance and penalty rows come from the same per-shot dataset via their own pages.
The conversion ladder
Conversion season by season
| Season | Club | Shots | Goals | Conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | 33 | 13 | 39.4% |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Dortmund | 92 | 27 | 29.3% |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | 80 | 22 | 27.5% |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | 123 | 36 | 29.3% |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | 122 | 27 | 22.1% |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | 109 | 22 | 20.2% |
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | 125 | 27 | 21.6% |
| 2026/27 | Manchester City | 20 | 5 | 25.0% |
| Season | Club | Shots | Goals | Conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015/16 | Monaco | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
| 2016/17 | Monaco | 53 | 15 | 28.3% |
| 2017/18 | Paris Saint-Germain / Monaco | 79 | 13 | 16.5% |
| 2018/19 | Paris Saint-Germain | 125 | 33 | 26.4% |
| 2019/20 | Paris Saint-Germain | 88 | 18 | 20.5% |
| 2020/21 | Paris Saint-Germain | 103 | 27 | 26.2% |
| 2021/22 | Paris Saint-Germain | 147 | 29 | 19.7% |
| 2022/23 | Paris Saint-Germain | 150 | 29 | 19.3% |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | 120 | 27 | 22.5% |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | 161 | 31 | 19.3% |
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | 146 | 25 | 17.1% |
| 2026/27 | Real Madrid | 41 | 7 | 17.1% |
What the conversion numbers show
The ladder is the story
Read the chart top to bottom: on all shots Haaland leads by 4.5 percentage points, but hold chance quality equal and the lead shrinks to 2.5 points on big chances and 3.0 on penalties. Most of Haaland's headline conversion advantage lives in the shots he does not take: he attempts 0.8 fewer shots per 90 than Mbappé and the ones he keeps are worth 0.243 xG each against 0.189. Given a chance of equal quality, the two finish almost alike.
Haaland leadsLeague conversion: Haaland 25.4% vs Mbappé 20.9%.
Volume versus selectivity
Mbappé has taken 514 more league shots than Haaland. That is not indiscipline; it is his job description. A winger who dribbles into his own shots will always carry a tail of low-value attempts that a penalty-box striker never faces, and those attempts still produce: Mbappé has scored +24.3 goals more than his chances were worth, the largest over-performance either player can claim, against Haaland's +7.6. Conversion rate punishes ambition; xG over-performance rewards it. You need both numbers to be fair to both players, and the finishing-efficiency article walks through that argument in full.
Mbappé leadsGoals above expectation: Mbappé +24.3 vs Haaland +7.6.
The range is wider than reputations admit
Season to season, conversion swings more than fans assume. Haaland hit 39.4% in 2019/20, his explosive half-season arrival at Dortmund, and has settled in the low twenties at Manchester City, bottoming at 20.2% in 2024/25. Mbappé's spread runs from 28.3% as a Monaco teenager down to 17.1% in 2017/18, and his Real Madrid seasons sit near the bottom of that range. Part of this is regression to the mean, part is defences treating them as the primary threat every week. Neither trend line is alarming; both remain comfortably better than the one-in-six benchmark that separates good forwards from ordinary ones.
Go deeper
Shot conversion: common questions
What is shot conversion rate?
Goals divided by shots. A conversion rate of 25% means one goal from every four attempts, counting every shot: blocked, saved, off target or scored. Penalties are included unless stated otherwise; this page shows the figure both with and without them.
Who has the better shot conversion, Haaland or Mbappé?
Haaland. In domestic league football Haaland converts 25.4% of his shots (179 goals from 704 shots) and Mbappé 20.9% (255 from 1,218), as of 2026-10-01. Without penalties it is 22.3% against 18.5%.
How many shots does each need per goal?
Haaland scores once every 3.9 shots, Mbappé once every 4.8. For context, a typical top-flight forward needs six to eight; both are well inside that.
Why is Haaland's conversion higher?
Mostly shot selection and position. His average attempt is worth 0.243 expected goals against Mbappé's 0.189, because he shoots almost exclusively from inside the box at the end of team moves, while Mbappé takes more shots, from further out, often after creating them himself. Conversion rewards the first style; goals above xG reward the second, and that figure favours Mbappé.
Is a high conversion rate always good?
Not by itself. A striker can inflate conversion by refusing every difficult shot, and a creator can depress it by taking responsibility from bad positions. Read it next to shot volume and xG per shot: Haaland pairs high conversion with lower volume, Mbappé higher volume with lower conversion, and both end up around a goal a game.
Does this include cups and internationals?
No. Shot-by-shot data for both players exists only for domestic league matches in the big five leagues (Understat): Bundesliga and Premier League for Haaland from 2019/20, Ligue 1 and La Liga for Mbappé from 2015/16.