Big chances
213Haaland
270Mbappé
Non-penalty shots with xG ≥ 0.30, league only
Haaland vs Mbappé big chances
Nothing enrages a fan like a striker missing a sitter, and nothing is more normal: elite forwards miss about half of their clearest openings. In domestic league football, Haaland has scored 104 of 213 big chances (48.8%) and Mbappé 125 of 270 (46.3%), as of 2026-10-09. A big chance here is a non-penalty shot worth at least 0.30 expected goals. This page counts them, splits the misses by how they happened, and lists the ten biggest misses of each career.
Conversion rate
48.8%Haaland
46.3%Mbappé
Elite norm is just under 50%
Big chances missed
109Haaland
145Mbappé
Raw misses track raw chances
Big chances per 90
1.13Haaland
1.00Mbappé
How often each reaches a clear opening
Scored per 90
0.55Haaland
0.46Mbappé
Big-chance goals per 90 league minutes
xG wasted on misses
48.8Haaland
63.0Mbappé
Expected goals left on the pitch
Big chances compared
| Statistic | Haaland | Mbappé |
|---|---|---|
| League career (Understat, non-penalty shots with xG ≥ 0.30) | ||
| Big chances | 213 | 270 |
| Scored | 104 | 125 (better) |
| Missed | 109 (better) | 145 |
| Conversion rate | 48.8% (better) | 46.3% |
| Big chances per 90 minutes16,956 vs 24,413 league minutes | 1.13 (better) | 1.00 |
| Big chances scored per 90 | 0.55 (better) | 0.46 |
| xG thrown away by missessum of xG on missed big chances | 48.8 (better) | 63.0 |
| Share of non-penalty goals from big chances | 68.9% | 57.1% |
| How the misses happen | ||
| Saved by the goalkeeper | 57 | 73 |
| Off target | 42 (better) | 55 |
| Hit the woodwork | 6 | 6 |
| Blocked | 4 | 11 |
| Form | ||
| Best season conversion2019/20 vs 2016/17 (min. 10 chances) | 76.9% | 80.0% (better) |
| Worst season conversion2023/24 vs 2025/26 | 33.3% | 32.1% (better) |
| Current club conversionManchester City vs Real Madrid | 42.9% (better) | 37.5% |
Understat covers Haaland's Bundesliga and Premier League seasons from 2019/20 and Mbappé's Ligue 1 and La Liga seasons from 2015/16; Norwegian and Austrian league matches, cups, Europe and internationals are not included. "Big chance" is defined by an xG threshold, not Opta's hand-coded tally, so figures differ slightly from broadcast graphics. Blocked shots count as misses here; Opta usually excludes them.
Conversion compared
Season by season
| Season | Haaland | Mbappé |
|---|---|---|
| 2015/16 | – | 1/1 (100.0%) |
| 2016/17 | – | 8/10 (80.0%) |
| 2017/18 | – | 8/18 (44.4%) |
| 2018/19 | – | 23/44 (52.3%) |
| 2019/20 | 10/13 (76.9%) | 11/23 (47.8%) |
| 2020/21 | 16/30 (53.3%) | 15/25 (60.0%) |
| 2021/22 | 12/16 (75.0%) | 12/27 (44.4%) |
| 2022/23 | 22/44 (50.0%) | 12/34 (35.3%) |
| 2023/24 | 12/36 (33.3%) | 8/16 (50.0%) |
| 2024/25 | 13/28 (46.4%) | 14/35 (40.0%) |
| 2025/26 | 16/39 (41.0%) | 9/28 (32.1%) |
| 2026/27 | 3/7 (42.9%) | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Total | 104/213 (48.8%) | 125/270 (46.3%) |
The ten biggest misses
| Date | Match | Minute | xG | Outcome | Final score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 November 2020 | Borussia Dortmund v FC Cologne (H) | 94' | 0.80 | off target | 1-2 |
| 3 March 2024 | Manchester City v Manchester United (H) | 44' | 0.66 | off target | 3-1 |
| 18 February 2023 | Manchester City v Nottingham Forest (A) | 66' | 0.65 | off target | 1-1 |
| 9 May 2026 | Manchester City v Brentford (H) | 74' | 0.65 | saved | 3-0 |
| 16 September 2023 | Manchester City v West Ham (A) | 6' | 0.64 | blocked | 1-3 |
| 6 December 2023 | Manchester City v Aston Villa (A) | 10' | 0.64 | saved | 1-0 |
| 26 October 2024 | Manchester City v Southampton (H) | 62' | 0.63 | off target | 1-0 |
| 2 November 2024 | Manchester City v Bournemouth (A) | 92' | 0.61 | post | 2-1 |
| 19 May 2024 | Manchester City v West Ham (H) | 83' | 0.59 | off target | 3-1 |
| 9 November 2024 | Manchester City v Brighton (A) | 22' | 0.59 | saved | 2-1 |
| Date | Match | Minute | xG | Outcome | Final score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 December 2025 | Real Madrid v Sevilla (H) | 93' | 0.83 | off target | 2-0 |
| 30 August 2026 | Real Madrid v Malaga (H) | 58' | 0.77 | saved | 4-0 |
| 7 May 2023 | Paris Saint-Germain v Troyes (A) | 85' | 0.74 | saved | 1-3 |
| 22 August 2026 | Real Madrid v Espanyol (A) | 52' | 0.73 | off target | 1-2 |
| 1 February 2023 | Paris Saint-Germain v Montpellier (A) | 9' | 0.66 | off target | 1-3 |
| 8 October 2023 | Paris Saint-Germain v Rennes (A) | 85' | 0.66 | off target | 1-3 |
| 28 August 2022 | Paris Saint-Germain v Monaco (H) | 87' | 0.60 | off target | 1-1 |
| 24 May 2025 | Real Madrid v Real Sociedad (H) | 6' | 0.60 | saved | 2-0 |
| 23 February 2019 | Paris Saint-Germain v Nimes (H) | 59' | 0.59 | off target | 3-0 |
| 27 May 2023 | Paris Saint-Germain v Strasbourg (A) | 69' | 0.59 | off target | 1-1 |
What the big-chance numbers show
Volume is Haaland's kingdom
Haaland reaches a big chance every 79.6 minutes of league football, Mbappé every 90.4. Per 90 minutes that is 1.13 to 1.00, and it is the single clearest statistical signature of how differently they play: Haaland's entire game is engineered to arrive on the end of clear chances, while Mbappé creates many of his own shots from wider and deeper positions, where the model rates them lower. 69% of Haaland's non-penalty league goals come from big chances against 57% for Mbappé, which says the same thing from the other side: take the clear openings away and a much bigger share of Mbappé's scoring survives.
Haaland leadsBig chances per 90: Haaland 1.13 vs Mbappé 1.00.
Both miss half, because everyone does
The headline nobody likes: Haaland has missed 109 big chances and Mbappé 145. The context both deserve: their conversion rates, 48.8% and 46.3%, sit right around the elite norm of a little under one in two. Missing big chances in volume is a side effect of getting them in volume. The difference between the two players over a full career is worth roughly one goal a season, in Haaland's favour.
Haaland leadsBig-chance conversion: Haaland 48.8% vs Mbappé 46.3%.
How they miss, and when
Mbappé's misses are mostly goalkeeper saves (73 of 145), the same pattern as his penalties: keepers read him. Haaland splits more evenly between saves (57) and off-target finishes (42), which fits a striker meeting first-time deliveries at full stretch. The season table shows both have cooled from their early peaks: Haaland converted 76.9% in 2019/20 but only 33.3% in 2023/24, while Mbappé has slipped from 80.0% in 2016/17 to 32.1% in 2025/26, his worst, at Real Madrid, where his overall numbers are held up by penalties and volume rather than clean finishing of clear chances.
The famous ones
Haaland's biggest miss by the model came against FC Cologne (0.80 xG, 28 November 2020); the one fans remember is the open-goal miss against Manchester United in March 2024, which sits second on the list. Mbappé's biggest, worth 0.83 xG, came in stoppage time against Sevilla on 20 December 2025. Note what the tables do not show: neither list changed a title race on its own, and several of the biggest misses came in games already won or lost.
Go deeper
Big chances: common questions
What counts as a big chance?
On this page, a big chance is any shot in open play or from a set piece (penalties excluded) that Understat's expected-goals model rates at 0.30 xG or higher, meaning an average finisher scores it at least three times in ten. It is a close proxy for Opta's hand-coded "big chance", which this dataset does not contain.
Who misses more big chances, Haaland or Mbappé?
In raw numbers Mbappé: 145 big chances missed in league football to Haaland's 109, as of 2026-10-09. But Mbappé has also had more big chances (270 to 213) over more seasons; as a rate, the two miss a very similar share.
Who converts big chances better?
Haaland, slightly: Haaland scores 48.8% of his big chances and Mbappé 46.3%. Both are around the elite norm, which sits a little under 50%.
Who gets more big chances per game?
Haaland: about 1.13 big chances every 90 minutes against Mbappé's 1.00. That gap is Haaland's game in one number: his movement and Manchester City's service put him on the end of a clear chance more often than any forward in Europe.
What is the biggest chance each has missed?
By xG, Haaland's biggest league miss was worth 0.80 xG, against FC Cologne in 2020; Mbappé's was worth 0.83 xG, against Sevilla in 2025. Both tables below list the ten biggest for each player.
Do missed big chances mean bad finishing?
Not by themselves. Elite strikers miss roughly half of their big chances, so volume of misses mostly tracks volume of chances. The better finishing measures are conversion rate on this page and goals minus expected goals, which the finishing-efficiency article covers; a player can lead the league in big chances missed and still be its best striker.